Luke Fostvedt

The Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) is a triennial survey conducted by the OECD to assess the quality of education around the work. The aim of PISA is to measure how well 15 year old students can apply their acquired knowledge in mathematics, science, and reading to real-life situations. In each iteration of the PISA survey, there is one subject that is more heavily emphasized. In 2012, the emphasis was on mathematics. The survey also collects data on hundreds of other variables that assess the student, their psychological views regarding a subject, their home life, and many others. Additionally, school information is collected from a survey completed by the principal and, in some countries, parent’s were given a survey. All 34 OECD members and 31 non-OECD economies around the world participate in the survey. Together these economies account for over 80% of the world’s total GDP.

One of the …

To call in the statistician after the experiment is done may be no more than asking him to perform a post-mortem examination: he may be able to say what the experiment died of. – Sir R.A. Fisher (1938)

All models are wrong, but some are useful. – George Box

Statisticians, like artists, have the bad habit of falling in love with their models. – George Box

The greatest value of a picture is when it forces us to notice what we never expected to see. – John Tukey

Data is the sword of the 21st century, those who wield it well, the Samurai. – Jonathan Rosenberg

Those who ignore Statistics are condemned to reinvent it. – Brad Efron

It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so. – Mark Twain

My thesis is simply this: probability does not …

In August 2011, I was in South Africa on holiday. My friend Andrea Gero and I headed up to the Cango Ostrich farm in Oudtshoorn where unknown adventure awaited. The highlight of the day was the Ostrich massage which is the least relaxing massage one will ever get. The picture explains it all.…

Welcome to Ethiopia! I am sitting in the terminal waiting to get on the plane from Addis Ababa to the Kilimanjaro Airport and this terminal is something else. The walls are made of a mud-like plaster and are a desert sand color. People are openly smoking in the halls throughout the terminal and the bathrooms have signs saying “Passengers Only”. The array of people in the boarding area is quite impressive. I think south America is the only continent that doesn’t have a representative.

A large Kenyan man is sitting in my assigned aisle seat as I am boarding the flight to Kilimanjaro; he insists that I take the middle seat. It’s only a 2 hour 20 minute flight so I oblige. 20 minutes before we land we fly right by Mt Kilimanjaro and there is a rare, clear view of the mountain and the summit. Since I am in …

Luke Fostvedt, Dan Nordman, Alyson Wilson

Abstract: We consider a model for generating a random graph using the configuration model. In the configuration model, each node draws a degree independently from a marginal degreed distribution and endpoints pair randomly. We establish non-trivial bounds on the expected sizes of “buckets ” for large graphs. We define nodes i and j in a graph as neighbors if they share an edge, and we define the “bucket ” associated with node i as the set of nodes that are its neighbors and have degree greater than node i. We formalize this argument by providing an analysis for the expected number of items and pairs in a “bucket ” for arbitrarily specified degree distributions, which include power laws.

Paper: Technical Report…